Free tool · Reality Check

The math nobody shows you

Spread, fees and slippage are a deterministic tax that compounds across every trade — it’s why most short-timeframe strategies are net-negative before psychology even enters. Move the sliders and see what your edge really is, the win-rate you actually need, and your risk of ruin. Education only, not financial advice.

Your strategy

Win rate50%
Reward : risk (on winners)1.5:1
Cost per trade0.15R

Spread+fees+slippage as a share of your 1R risk. Scalpers ~0.3R+; swing traders <0.05R.

Trades per month40
Risk per trade1%

% of account at risk if the stop hits.

Verdict

Net positive edge

Net expectancy +0.1R per trade (gross +0.25R − 0.15R costs).

Win rate needed

46%

you set 50% · clears it

Cost drag / yr

72R

480 trades/yr

Expected / yr

+48R

Risk of ruin*

0%

*50% drawdown in a year

One simulated year · median ends at 161%

A simplified model (fixed-fractional, 3,000 simulated years) to make the arithmetic visceral — not a prediction of your results. Real outcomes vary. Education only, not financial advice.

Reality Check — NEO TRADER